We did our mock draft yesterday and now it’s time for a little more background on the players taken in the first round and which top players I think have bust written all over them. And I’ll be sure to point yet another reason Merril Hoge needs to stop looking just at measurables and actually factor in onfield performance.
Houston Texans
Trade. Trade. Trade. That’s not going to happen, but it’s still the smartest thing the Texans could do. Reggie Bush is a remarkable player and has a huge upside, but the Texans need a lot more than another running back to turn the franchise around. The New York Jets are sitting at number 4 and likely would sell their souls for a marquee name to compete with the Giants and Eli Manning. The trade value chart says the Jets would have to give up their pick at #35 and #71 along with the fourth overall to move up those three spots, and I’m willing to bet they’d do it in a heart beat. The Texans could then pick up either D’Brickashaw Ferguson or Mario Williams (who they claim to be considering at number one) in the four spot, and help address their other needs (CB, OT or DE) with the extra picks. They committed the money to David Carr saying he was their future, now draft like you want him to be alive to see it.
Update: The Texans have signed North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams to a six-year, $54 million deal. They’ve could’ve gotten a a 3rd rounder for the pick and moved down to #4 and possibly still gotten Williams. Whoops. Morons.
Tennessee Titans
There appears to be a battle between the coaching staff and the front office over which quarterback they should take at number three. The latest word is that Titans G.M. Floyd Reese wants Vince Young and that he will be their pick on Saturday. I can’t stand the analysts that keep harping on whether Young or Matt Leinart is “most ready to play now.” If you’re drafting a quarterback and base your decision on the next year or two you’re an idiot. Whichever rookie QB you trot out there in 2006 will be terrible and slightly less sucky in 2007. Draft the guy you think will have the better career and help your team win Super Bowls, not two extra games in 2006.
Detroit Lions
I don’t know how Matt Millen is going to be able to contain himself when Florida’s Chad Jackson and Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes will still be on the board when the Lions pick at nine. More likely, they’ll end up taking yet another Longhorn in Michael Huff. That would give the Detroit Longhorns much needed help in there secondary to go with former Horns Will Matthews, Cory Redding, Shaun Rogers, and Roy Williams. Millen will find a way to botch this.
Jimmy Williams
The Virginia Tech cornerback is probably the best true corner in the draft but I’m hearing a lot of negative news about Williams lately and that it may cause him to fall. It sounds like it’s mostly an attitude issue, no criminal record and no off-field stuff. It will all come down to how he came off in personal interviews with teams such as the Cardinals and Dolphins, otherwise he could fall behind some other, less worthy players.
Brodrick Bunkley, Antonio Cromartie, Ernie Sims, & Kamerion Wimbley
Man, Florida State must have been an outstanding football team this year. Oh wait, they were really average. With three very hyped first rounders on the defensive side of the ball you’d think they could’ve stopped a team like Maryland from putting up 35 points. I’ve knew of Sims and remember Cromartie, but it seems like no one was talking about most of these guys until the last couple of months. Anytime a guy shoots up the draft board based purely on workouts I wonder why if they were so damn talented were they so quiet on the football field? I don’t doubt these guys’ talent, but it takes a lot more than talent to succeed in the National Football League. Cromartie started something like one game in his entire Seminole career and missed all of 2005 with another injury. Sure he’s got great size and speed, but so do some of the other available corners who actually have more than a handful games of experience.
Jay Cutler
Today’s latest rumors have Matt Leinart sliding, possibly all the way out of the top 10. Does that mean Cutler would slide even further? If any G.M. selects Cutler and his below average stats and even worse ability to win games over Leinart or Young should be immediately fired. Cutler has a cannon for an arm, but he has poor mechanics and seems to be missing a few of the intangibles that make a player like Vince Young so special. I know Vanderbilt isn’t exactly loaded with talent, but if he was truly the quarterback some experts are making him out to be he should’ve been able to find a way to beat teams like Middle Tennesse State. Look at his stats, the two best defenses he faced this year were LSU and Georgia and he couldn’t have performed much worse in those games. 43% completion rate, 287 total passing, 1 TD and 3 interceptions in thoe two games. Not impressive. Cutler may fall all the way to Minnesota at number seventeen.
Santonio Holmes and Chad Jackson
Not a good year for wide receivers overall and probably only two first round talents available. Niether Jackson or Holmes has ideal size or was particulary dominant on the college level. Jackson shot up draft boards thanks to his blazing fast 4.32 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine, the fastest of even player at the event. But Jackson only averaged about 10 yards per catch last season for Florida, a very low number for a receiver being taken this high. Was that a result of Urban Meyer’s offense or Chris Leak? Or is Jackson just a workout wonder? Even if my team needed help at the position, I think this season you fill another need first and look WR in the later rounds. Of course Merril Hoge actually suggested Jackson should go in the top 5, which validates my opinion even more. Holmes and Jackson likely go very near each other in the middle of the first round, Philadelphia, Denver, and Miami all will give these guys a look.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in desperate need of a safety capable of covering a one-legged man and any offensive line help they can get. At pick #18 there’s likely to no longer be any linemen worth taking this high, though there’s a slight chance USC’s Winston Justice could fall to them. Safeties Donte Whitner and Jason Allen should both be available and both would be immediate upgrades to two different positions. Putting a good free safety with Roy Williams allows him to become a fourth linebacker, he’d be able to worry less about the pass and more about making plays. Whitner and Allen are solid but unspectacular. Depending on who is still available, Bill Parcells may pick up a DE/OLB combo player to pair with DeMarcus Ware. Kamerion Wimbley and Manny Lawson fit that description perfectly and grade out higher than any safety other than Michael Huff. If either of those guys is still around the Cowboys would be all over them. The eighteenth pick is a perfect spot to just sit and let a quality defender come to them.
Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, and DeAngelo Williams
I think every team has a different one of these three running backs at the top of their list. It all depends on what kind of system you want to run and which guy fits that the best. Also, how does LenDale White’s recent injury/laziness does affect teams’ opinions of him. If the draft was held January 7th White is a top ten pick and I think he has that kind of talent. Unless I’m the Colts, if I need a running back White is my guy. DeAngelo Williams is short but strong, he’d be a perfect fit for a more open offense that wants to get the ball in his hands via the run or the pass. Williams was amazingly productive at the college level and in the right system could be a great value in the back end of the first round. I think teams have decided that running backs can be found on the second day and are less eager to spend a high first round pick on the position. All three of these guys drop into the twenties, once one is picked the other two will follow shortly. The Panthers, Colts, Jags, Jets, and Steelers all need running back help.
reply to #1
acc>bigxii
April 29th, 2006 at 12:15 am
FSU had a terrific defense this year. They play in the premier conference and lost their starting QB at the start of the year due to a freak disease. Yet you spout off just because you haven’t followed enough football to know who Cromartie is. Go ask Miami, they know him well.
reply to #2
Brian
April 29th, 2006 at 8:36 am
Terrific? I’m sorry teams with that much talent shouldn’t give up 35 points to teams like Clemson and lose 5 games.
And yes I know who Cromartie is (as I said in the post), I follow recruiting very closely and definitely remember him from then. All I said was that it’s scary to draft a player that high based purely on measureables. When you’ve played as little football as he has, you’re more likely to be a bust.
reply to #3
Chris
May 1st, 2006 at 4:45 pm
Of those 4 players, only 2 of them were in the defensive lineup during FSU’s late season losing skid. Cromartie was injured the whole season and Wimbley missed the last 4 games of the regular season.
reply to #4
KBall
September 2nd, 2006 at 3:26 pm
Wow, your comments about Cutler already look extremely dumb. I’m going to go ahead and make that call now. Cutler is well ahead of Young (who I think will eventually be a fine QB) and ahead of Leinart.
I’m guessing the “ability to win games” – as you put it – is a little bit more common at USC and Texas than Vanderbilt. What a dumb statement. Basically, what you’re saying is that a guy getting overlooked or mis-recruited coming out of high school and thereby going to a lesser school should impact where he goes in the draft years later. Patently dumb.