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The Longhorns face off against (formerly?) hated rival [tag]Arkansas[/tag] today at 2:30pm on ABC. Some current UT students weren’t even born yet when the Razorbacks left the old SWC but this rivalry still holds some heat and could keep today’s game closer than expected.
Will the Longhorns finally get their running game going? Can the defense get started before the second quarter starts? Read on to see what the editors of Bevo Sports think will happen today:
Brian – These aren’t your daddy’s Razorbacks. After changing coaches Arkansas is in a rebuilding year and the Longhorns are poised to take advantage today. New Texas coaches [tag]Major Applewhite[/tag] and [tag]Will Muschamp[/tag] will make sure the Horns match Arky’s energy and this one will be a blowout. The running game won’t be perfect but [tag]Cody Johnson[/tag] will have his coming out party and top the century mark for the game. As a team the Horns will rush for over 250 yards and win easily. Texas 56 – Arkansas 21
Mike – [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag] will continue to play at a Heisman level in a beat down game that should have happened two weeks ago. The last time Arkansas came to town they left with a shocking victory, but the Razorbacks don’t have super freak Matt Jones under center. The secondary will continue to give up big plays, but the players and the staff has shown the ability to make big game adjustments. Anything can happen (USC vs. Oregon State), but I don’t see this staff letting this team come out flat. The running game finally gets it going and the front seven dominates again as the Longhorns roll. Texas 41 – Arkansas 20
Matt – Man this match-up looked like a lot more fun when it was originally scheduled for Sept 13. This is a storied rivalry, but this won’t be much of a game. The Texas defense will be tested through the air, but they should be able to keep things under control with some Casey Dick mistakes. I don’t see Texas overlooking this game after what happened to USC. Colt and the offense will continue to roll and should win by a big margin. Texas 55 – Arkansas 19
Read below for the Longhorns’ keys to beat the Arkansas Razorbacks:
1. Match their intensity/hatred.
The Texas/Arkansas rivalry isn’t what it used to be back in the days of the Southwest Conference, but the hatred for the Longhorns in Fayettenam hasn’t waned. On the field the Horns can’t let the Razorbacks ride that energy to a quick start. The talent Mack Brown will be putting on the field Saturday easily overmatches that of new Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino, if the Horns come out and score early they should be able to pull away and win easily.
2. Keep an eye on RB Michael Smith.
5-foot-7 junior running back is leading the Razorbacks in rushing and is also on of Casey Dick’s top receiving options. He’s averaging nearly 125 yards per game on the ground and has also chipped in 10 catches for 90 yards. The Horns have problems in the secondary so they need to be able to bottle up Smith and make Arkansas one-dimensional. [tag]Roddrick Muckelroy[/tag] needs to introduce himself Mr. Smith early and often.
3. Get one of the Texas running backs rolling.
The top two rushers for the Longhorns against [tag]Rice[/tag] were the starting and backup quarterbacks. [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag] is leading the team with 194 rushing yards through three games and while he needs to keep running he’ll need one of his running backs to step up behind him. Speedy [tag]Foswhitt Whittaker[/tag] is likely out for the game so it’ll be up to [tag]Vondrell McGee[/tag] and big [tag]Cody Johnson[/tag] to provide ground support. Alabama ran all over the Razorbacks last week (328 yards rushing) and the Horns need to do the same, even if it takes 30 carries from Johnson to get there.
Let’s see what is going on this Saturday. Remember, I did go 3-1 last weekend against the spread.
Arkansas at #7 Texas (-27) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. When these two teams were first scheduled to meet, both were sitting at 2-0. Now things look a bit different with Texas coasting to victory against Rice and Arkansas getting blown out at home against Alabama. The Texas Longhorns are huge favorites for the 4th straight week, and deservedly so. Texas is averaging 48.7 points per game (6th in nation) and should easily score in the 50’s again at home against a weak Arkansas defense. The only potential for trouble is the Arkansas passing game against the young Texas secondary. Lucky Casey Dick is prone to making some mistakes. This one should be another easy cover with the Longhorns winning by 35.
#24 TCU at #2 Oklahoma (-18) – 7:00 PM EST on FCSA. With USC losing, Oklahoma now has the opportunity to make a statement to becoming the #1 team in the nation. There is no way Oklahoma overlooks this game since TCU has managed to beat them in Norman twice in a row. So far this season Oklahoma is destroying teams by an average margin of 35.3 points per game and this Saturday will be no different. TCU’s defense has been impressive, but I doubt they have ever seen an offense like they will face this weekend. This might be the easiest cover of the weekend with Oklahoma winning by 30+.
#8 Alabama at #3 Georgia (-7) – 7:45 PM EST on ESPN. Probably the game to watch this weekend. Alabama looks like they are going to be a legit SEC contender and Georgia is still trying to prove they belong at the top. Georgia will be wearing the cool black uniforms trying their best to look like a high school football team. If you like tough, physical football, this game is for you. Both teams boast impressive running games and stout defenses. This game will probably be one of those typical 14-10 SEC games. But in this one I think Alabama comes out the winner with their running game and offensive line. So take Alabama money-line on this one.
#22 Illinois at #12 Penn St (-16) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. I don’t normally care about or watch Big 10 match-ups, but I am interested in seeing how Penn St looks against Illinois. Penn St is scoring 52.7 points per game, and probably won’t be stopped Saturday. Take them to cover. Here is something to think about. Penn St demolished Oregon St. Oregon St dominated USC. USC killed Ohio St. I still haven’t figured out what that means about Ohio St and the Big 10, but on first thought I would lean towards the Pac-10 and Big 10 sucking.
[tag]John Chiles[/tag]
The Texas staff stressed getting the best 11 players out on the field this year regardless of class or position. Chiles is clearly one of those players even if he is not the best quarterback on the team. Chiles offers the big play ability that UT severely needs for this offense to be as dynamic as it can be. Offensive coordinator [tag]Greg Davis[/tag] must find ways to get the former blue chip recruit involved, be it in the running game or in the passing game as a quarterback or as a receiver.
[tag]Vondrell McGee[/tag]
This could be McGee’s last week to show the coaches he is worthy of important carries in important games. So far the sophomore has done nothing to warrant a starting job and is not only getting pushed by injured [tag]Foswhitt Whittaker[/tag], but by bruiser [tag]Cody Johnson[/tag]. With Texas wanting big plays out of the running game, expect to see fewer and fewer carries for McGee unless he comes out and impresses this weekend against a SEC defense in Arkansas.
[tag]Peter Ullman[/tag]
Losing [tag]Blaine Irby[/tag] for the season is a huge blow for Texas’ offense. Irby allowed the Longhorn offense to lineup in four receiver sets without changing personnel. While Ullman will never scare opposing defenses in the passing game, he will be an upgrade in the running game and if he can add a few catches in the flats or in the shallow middle of the field Texas’ offense will continue to succeed. If the former Round Rock Dragon cannot offer any threat to opposing defenses UT may have to look at a different position for a player to contribute at the tight end position.
[tag]Sam Acho[/tag]
The coaches have been impressed with Acho since fall camp began. In reserve duty behind star [tag]Brian Orakpo[/tag] Acho has played well. If he continues to outplay [tag]Henry Melton[/tag] (who isn’t playing poorly) and backup [tag]Eddie Jones[/tag], the staff may have to look at getting Orakpo, [tag]Sergio Kindle[/tag], and Acho on the field at the same time. Texas wants pressure on the quarterback, and through the first three games Acho has shown more ability to do that on a consistent basis than any other defensive lineman not named Brian Orakpo. If it continues some upperclassmen are going to find themselves standing next to [tag]Will Muschamp[/tag] more than they’d like.
[tag]Chykie Brown[/tag]
It is no secret that the weak link on the defense; and the team for that matter is in the Texas secondary. Going into the season most onlookers expected [tag]Deon Beasley[/tag] to start next to [tag]Ryan Palmer[/tag], but through the first three games it has been sophomore Chykie Brown. Brown had his struggles tackling in the first game, with every other member of the secondary, but has made good strides in the last two ball games. Texas plays a lot of five defensive back sets with Beasley playing in the slot. Opposing defenses will continue to test Brown until he shows he can make plays. A good game heading into conference play will go a long way in building confidence for the ultra talented corner.
When Texas has the ball
Not enough can be said about Colt McCoy’s play this season. Without him, Texas is no better than the sixth best team in the conference. With him, the Longhorns have a chance to win every game on their schedule, even OU and Missouri. Great quarterbacks have the ability to cover up the weaknesses on their team while exploiting the weaknesses of the opponent. So far Colt has been almost perfect, throwing for 11 touchdowns and leading the team in rushing. Expect no different this week against a young Arkansas defense.
Texas’ running game has problems. The offensive line has been solid, but the backs have struggled. When your quarterback is not named [tag]Vince Young[/tag], he shouldn’t be your team’s best running threat. Starting running back [tag]Vondrell McGee[/tag] has struggled against lackluster competition. Backup running back Foswhitt Whittaker has been sidelined with injuries to both knees. The best two running backs have been versatile [tag]Chris Ogbonnaya[/tag] and bruiser [tag]Cody Johnson[/tag]. The deficiencies running the ball have been masked by the play of McCoy and the fact that all of the games have been blowouts. As the competition gets better, one would think McCoy’s success will not come as easy. The major question for this offense will be to figure out where to get yards on the ground when they need them.
UT’s offense suffered a huge blow when [tag]Blaine Irby[/tag] went down with a dislocated knee. Texas’ tight ends will now be counted on for blocking more so than in the passing game. Expect Texas to use more four to five receiver sets in obvious passing downs. If the offense struggles do not be surprised to see Ogbonnaya get some snaps at tight end because of his experience at wide receiver. [tag]Jordan Shipley[/tag] and [tag]Quan Cosby[/tag] have performed at an all conference level, but the team still needs a go to third receiver, preferably one that can get deep.
The Arkansas defense has struggled giving up 33.3 per game.
When Arkansas has the ball
The good news is Texas is only allowing 11 points a game, and only [tag]Rice[/tag] has scored in the second half. Each opponent has thrown the ball with success against the Longhorn secondary, and the tests should only get tougher from here on out. Texas ranks ninth in the Big 12 in Pass Defense Efficiency, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attain a 112 passing rating. Arkansas’ Casey Dick is averaging over 300 yards per game through the air. The tackling has improved in the secondary, but the group is still giving up too much easy yardage and allowing too many third down conversions. Safeties [tag]Earl Thomas[/tag] and [tag]Blake Gideon[/tag] must continue to improve each week if the defense has any chance of helping the offense win a conference title.
The best way to help out the inexperienced secondary is to apply pressure. Texas recorded seven sacks against Rice, many of them coming in the second half. This proves that the defensive line can wear out an offense. In today’s age of quick passing sacks have lost some value, but applying pressure on a quarterback to change the timing of the routes as well as disrupting footwork is still key. Defensive coordinator [tag]Will Muschamp[/tag] keeps a stat on number of pressures the team has, so far they are up to 45 through three games.
The run defense has been great, which could be a result of the offensive philosophy that UT’s opponents have used. Texas has a good rotation along their front seven. The line backing core this year has performed better than any group under [tag]Mack Brown[/tag]. Muschamp is becoming a cult hero in Austin, and his desire and work ethic has directly influenced this group.
If Texas wants to get better, and they do, the defense needs to start creating more turnovers. Opposing offenses are giving the secondary too many chances to have only recorded one interception. Texas’ defense has been great in the red-zone giving way to the assumption that they are playing a bend but don’t break type of defense, but truly the lack of execution and talent has provided opportunities for stops. Does anyone believe this defense could stop the Big 12 powers 11 times within the 10 yard line?
Texas should once again be tested, but this is another week where the result isn’t truly in question. Texas’ goals are to be more consistent and allow less big plays while making a few more of their own.
Let’s see what is going on this Saturday. Remember, I did go 2-1 last weekend against the spread.
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (+3) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. The best news in this game might well be the fact that [tag]Stephen McGee[/tag] is injured and might not play. [tag]Jerrod Johnson[/tag] has shown some promise already this season and is probably a better option than McGee. Remember last year when Miami killed Aggy on the national stage? Well you can expect more of the same this year. Aggy will start the season 0-2 at home.
Rice at #7 Texas (-29) – 7:00 PM EST on FSN. After Hurricane Ike I am sure these two teams are ready to get back on the playing field and resume some normalcy. Rice doesn’t seem as bad this year as they normally do, but they still have no shot against Texas. Rice can actually score some points, so this will another good warm-up for the Texas defense before the real schedule starts. Rice might actually be a tough cover, but I see us winning by about 35.
#18 Wake Forest at #24 Florida State (-4) – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Florida St is currently #1 in the nation in overall defense, allowing only 170 yards per game, but that is a little deceiving since they have played two Football Championship Subdivision teams. Wake Forest has owned Florida State in recent years and is the only team to shut-out FSU at home in coach Bobby Bowdens’ career. FSU is the favorite in this game for a reason. They are much more talented in the skill positions and are playing at home. I think this game might be close, but FSU will end up winning by 7 and cover the spread.
#6 LSU at #10 Auburn (+2.5) – 7:45 PM EST on ESPN. By far the premier match-up of the weekend. With two of the best defenses in the country squaring off Saturday night, this has all of the makings to be a 7-6 game. If you only score 3 points against Mississippi St, something is wrong with your offense. Even though they are playing at home, Auburn has the real potential to be shut-out. LSU’s offense is nothing to write home about either, but they should be able to put something together. I see LSU winning this game 17-6.
This doesn’t look good for the game against Arkansas on Saturday. With the scheduled kick-off at 2:30 PM, Ike could possibly be moving through Austin right around game-time. Luckily both teams have an off week on Sept. 27, so scheduling a make-up game in case of a postponement should not be a problem.
Update: A source from OrangeBloods.com says that there is a 90% chance the game will be postponed until Sept. 27.
Update #2: Brazoria County, Chambers County and Galveston officials have issued evacuation orders.
Update #3: Orangebloods is reporting that the game has officially been postponed till September 27th. Here’s a the official press release from the athletic department. The football schedule page has been updated. (8:50pm)
Mack Brown’s Monday press conference video is now up for your viewing. Talks about some of the key players from the [tag]UTEP[/tag] game, who they want to get on the field more, and what the team has to continue to improve on before the [tag]Arkansas[/tag] game. Watch it below:
Scout.com’s 2008 spring preview continues with their top 40 non-conference games. Horns vs. Piggies is at number 11.