40 Acres Sports

Even though there is no Texas game this weekend, it almost feels like it with all of the Big 12 South implications that come with Texas Tech playing at Oklahoma. I feel like our best shot to go to the National Championship game is if Oklahoma beats Tech, but does that really mean I have to root for OU? That kind of makes me nauseous.

Well besides that game there really isn’t much to watch this Saturday. I guess that just gives more time to warm-up before the big game at night. And just FYI, I did go 3-0 last weekend against the spread, and plan to this weekend also.

Michigan at #10 Ohio State (-21) – 12:00 PM EST on ABC. I guess if you wake up early enough and have nothing else to do, this is the game to watch. With Michigan losing 8 games this year (first time ever by the way) and Ohio State in the #10 spot, you would think this would be an easy win for OSU. But in this kind of game anything can and usually happens. Ohio State doesn’t have the offense to cover a 21 point spread against Michigan, and this could be the game to save Coach Rodriguez’s job. Now I don’t really expect Michigan win, but it wouldn’t surprise me, and I think they easily stay inside the points. Take Michigan.

#15 Michigan State at #8 Penn State (-15.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. A win for Penn State here and they are in the Rose Bowl. This could also be Coach Pat’s last year in Happy Valley, so you know the players are fired up. Michigan State has lost 10 straight games against ranked opponents. The weather looks rough up north, which means the running game takes on more importance. With Michigan State’s already weak passing game, I expect Penn State to load up on the run and prevent Javon Ringer from having a big game. This one will be over in the first half. Take Penn State.

#2 Texas Tech at #5 Oklahoma (-7) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. The game every Texas fan will be watching. If Texas Tech wins they are automatically in the Big 12 Championship. If Oklahoma wins, they will have to also beat Oklahoma State and stay ahead of Texas in the BCS to play in the championship. Lots of pressure in this one. Texas Tech always pulls a “Tech” and implodes on themselves for at least one game. And this year will be no different. Oklahoma has been averaging 47 points in the first half in their last 4 games. When playing an offense like Tech, it can never be over in the first quarter, but this one could start getting ugly early. Take OU in this one.

An interesting note on the spread. It is holding steady at 7 even though you will see the juice rising all the way up to +110 at some places. That means there is obviously a lot of public money coming in on Tech, but there is some reason the bookies are holding that number. To me that seems odd and just another reason to take OU.

This weekend seems pretty boring compared to the barrage of top 10 match-ups we have seen recently. Everything has settled down and the race for the National Championship looks like it hinges on one important game, next week with #2 Texas Tech traveling to Norman and playing #5 Oklahoma. Still there are plenty of games this weekend with BCS implications.

#3 Texas at Kansas (+13) – 12:30 PM EST on FSN. Definitely can’t take this game lightly after what happened last time in Lawrence, KS. Expect weather to be a factor, as a cold front is coming in so it will be colder and windier than usual. So far this season Kansas hasn’t lived up to expectations, but they have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 and are always a threat to put up some points. Texas didn’t have their best game last week, which probably isn’t too much of a surprise in a letdown game against Baylor. Texas should get things back on track this weekend and I see them destroying Kansas. Give the points.

#25 South Carolina at #4 Florida (-22) – 3:30 PM EST on CBS. In my opinion Florida is the best team in the nation right now. Their speed on offense is absolutely ridiculous, and Tebow continues to just enough to not screw up. I think I could run an offense if all I had to do was hand the ball that Harvin, Demps, or Rainey. South Carolina has no shot in this game simply because they don’t have the speed to keep up with Florida, and the game is being played at the Swamp. This one could be over in the 1st quarter. Take Florida.

Boston College at #19 Florida St (-6) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. Not really much to watch at night, but this match-up in the ACC will go a long way in determining who will be playing for the ACC championship. I think this game will come down to whether or not Florida State can impose their will and continue to run the ball as well as they have been lately. Boston College is no slouch on defense, allowing only 102 yards per game. Both teams don’t really have high-powered offenses, so I see this one staying close. Boston College should stay within the 6 points here.

Things are heating up in the Big 12 South as two more undefeated teams square off on Saturday. Texas has to travel to Texas Tech where the fans remind me of those from the Philadelphia Eagles. The two best teams in the SEC also face each other this weekend, Florida vs. Georgia, in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in Jacksonville, Florida. It doesn’t get much better than this folks.

I went 2-2 again last week as the Tech/Kansas game surprised me a little. There are really only 2 games to watch this weekend, but luckily both of them should be great.

#8 Florida at #6 Georgia (+6.5) – 3:30 PM EST on CBS. Florida is fresh off a huge route against Kentucky. Florida has really hit a groove on offense since losing to Ole Miss and their team speed looks unstoppable. Georgia is also coming off a big win absolutely destroying a good LSU team in Baton Rouge. Florida has to be looking for some revenge in this game after Georgia’s team celebration in the end zone. Whoever wins this game will take control of the SEC East. Bottomline is Florida’s team speed is too much for Georgia to handle and they will cover the touchdown.

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech (+3.5) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. Another week and another undefeated Big 12 South opponent. This time Texas has to travel to Lubbock in their first big road test. The Tech fans can be rowdy, and this being a night game no doubt things will be extra crazy (drunk). Tech has proven they can score points (ala Kansas), but they have also proven they can struggle mightily (ala Nebraska and A&M). If Texas can pressure Harrell early they should be able to control the clock and the game. I think the defensive front seven of the Longhorns will be the key to this game. Colt will score the points, and the defense will save the game. Take Texas and give the points.

We all know how good Brian Orakpo has been on the field this season, but wait until you see what he can do in the weight room. Pretty scary.

Some really good match-ups this weekend, especially in the Big 12. You get to start off the day with Texas Tech playing on the road in Kansas, and then get to watch the #1 Texas Longhorns play Oklahoma State in the afternoon. Then you get to finish on the day with Penn State playing at Ohio State in the late game on ABC. Overall not a bad Saturday, not bad at all.

Now I did only go 2-2 last week, but I am still around 70% for the season. This weekend should be good.

#8 Texas Tech vs. #23 Kansas (PK) – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN. Texas Tech is 7-0 for the first time since 1976, but their undefeated is in serious jeopardy this weekend playing at Kansas. Kansas has proven they can score and Texas Tech’s defense has been looking pretty week in the last 2 weeks. The over/under in this one is around 68, which is not nearly enough for these two teams. Look for this one to be in the 80s as Kansas pulls out the victory in the end.

#6 Oklahoma State vs. #1 Texas (-12.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. Texas doesn’t get a break as they face another top ranked team for the 3rd straight week. I think Texas has proven they can handle the pressure of being #1 in the nation by demolishing Mizzou last weekend. Even though Texas has won 10 straight in this match-up, Oklahoma State has been a trouble spot for Texas in recent years, needing many a miracle 2nd half comeback to pull out the victory. I think this year Texas will jump out early at home and continue to apply pressure throughout the game. Give the points in this one.

#7 Georgia vs. #13 LSU (-1.5) – 3:30 PM EST on CBS. To me this one seems pretty simple. LSU has nothing at the quarterback position, and that will kill you with the SEC defenses. LSU’s defense struggled mightily against Florida’s speed, and it will probably be more of the same against Georgia. I really hate to go against LSU, but my gut tells me they don’t have a shot in this one.

#3 Penn State vs. #9 Ohio State (+2) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. This one might be the toughest on the board. You can make pretty good arguments both ways. Ohio State has been playing much better since getting blown out by USC, but Penn State has just been dominating every opponent. To me this one just comes down to offense. Ohio State struggles to score points, and Penn State averages 45 points per game. Even though this one is at OSU, take Penn State minus the points.

Not sure any weekend will be able to top the match-ups we saw on Saturday, but there are plenty of good games to watch tomorrow. You get to start your day off with an early SEC battle with #22 Vanderbilt playing at #10 Georgia. Then you get a nice afternoon game with #16 Kansas playing at #4 Oklahoma. After that I suggest you take a quick nap and then it will be time for #1 Texas to take on #11 Mizzou in the marquee match-up of the day. Gameday will be in Austin, as will I.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the big games. FYI, I went 3-1 last weekend against the spread (for around the 5th straight weekend). Hopefully some of you are making some money with me.

#22 Vanderbilt at #10 Georgia (-15) – 12:30 PM EST on ESPN Gameplan. How will Vanderbilt respond to their first loss of the season? I’ll tell you how, they will get destroyed by Georgia in Athens. Let’s just take a quick look at the numbers here. Georgia is averaging 440 yards in total offense and Vanderbilt is only averaging 262.5 yards. Georgia is averaging 280.8 yards passing and Vanderbilt is only averaging 102.7 yards. This has blow-out written all over it.

#16 Kansas at #4 Oklahoma (-20) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. Talk about a line jump, this game was set to open at 14 and was immediately bumped up to 20. Seems like a big number to me. Oklahoma’s best defensive player Ryan Reynolds is out for the season and their defense is fresh off allowing 438 yards to Texas. Kansas’ 7th ranked passing offense should keep them in the game. I don’t expect Kansas to win, but I think they can hang in there and not lose by 3 touchdowns.

#12 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State (+3.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. I guess you won’t really be able to watch this game since the OU game will be on, but this one could get interesting. Ohio State should be on high upset alert as Michigan State has been on a roll winning their last 6 games. You may know by now I am a big advocate of the run game, and that is where Michigan State excels with Javon Ringer already racking up over 1100 yards. And just so you know since Pryor took over the quarterback duties from Boeckman, the Buckeyes have had the 10th worst passing offense averaging 128 yards per game. I am liking Michigan State here, money-line.

#11 Missouri at #1 Texas (-5) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. I remember reading Hornfans last week and noticing most people seemed pretty level headed in that it would take a great game to beat OU. Now if you read Hornfans you will see a lot of people talking about how we will dominate Mizzou and how we will be all over Chase Daniel, etc, etc. This scares me a little. Missouri is a tough team and they don’t average 555 yards (383 yards passing) for nothing. And then you have the fact that Texas just gave up 5 passing touchdowns and you can see where my concern is. With all of that said I think Texas will be up for this game and ready to defend their #1 ranking. Home field advantage is the key here.

Wow, what a game. I must say that after [tag]Oklahoma[/tag] scored so quickly on their first two possessions, I thought we were going to get run out of the Cotton Bowl. Thankfully Jordan Shipley stepped up and Colt McCoy was able to keep the team calm. After that our defense made some big plays and Colt seemed to have full control of the game.

My favorite play of the game was easily the Quan Cosby block where he laid out #11. And my least favorite had to be the horrible penalty call when we supposedly “ran into” the punter. That punter has been watching too much soccer because that was some serious flopping.

So now Texas is 6-0 and #1 in the nation. No more relaxing, the target is on our backs. But enough of that, let’s see how each position fared against OU:

Quarterback – Overall Grade: A-

Even though [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag]’s stats don’t really show he had a great game, I felt his leadership and calmness was the key to victory against OU. Colt finished with 28/35 passing, 277 yards, and 1 touchdown. The most important stat Colt put up Saturday was zero turnovers. Colt simply didn’t make any mistakes. Colt definitely put himself into the thick of the Heisman race with this victory, and I think it is about time. Sam Bradford may have had better numbers, but I would take Colt any day.

John Chiles actually got some early playing time, probably trying to catch OU off-guard, but it was to no avail. Chiles did absolutely nothing and continues to disappoint.

Running Backs – Overall Grade: A-

[tag]Chris Ogbonnaya[/tag] got the start again Saturday, and I think he proved why. He ended up with 127 yards on only 15 carries, including a long 62 yard run which sealed the game for Texas. And even though [tag]Cody Johnson[/tag] only got 3 carries, he made the most of them scoring touchdowns on each one. He has proved he is a great goal line runner, and he and Ogbonnaya are proving to be a lethal 1-2 punch. In our most important game of the year so far, [tag]Vondrell McGee[/tag] ended up with only 1 carry for -2 yards. I think it is safe to say the coaches know who to give the ball to now.

Wide Receivers – Overall Grade: A

I didn’t think Texas could win this game with only 2 receivers, but the combo of [tag]Jordan Shipley[/tag] and [tag]Quan Cosby[/tag] was just too much for the Oklahoma secondary. Shipley seemed like he was open on every play and made some key first downs. He finished with 11 catches, 112 yards, and 1 touchdown. Cosby was all over the place too adding 9 catches and 122 yards. Cosby may be a little undersized, but he probably has some of the best hands in the Big 12 and always seems to make big plays. The rest of the receivers combined for 4 catches and 16 yards.

Defense – Overall Grade: B+

Even though I think the defense played great, I do have to dock them for allowing 5 passing touchdowns. The greatest part of the defense on Saturday is that I actually noticed our safeties, and in a good way. [tag]Blake Gideon[/tag] seemed to always be around for the tackle, and [tag]Earl Thomas[/tag] ended up with two interceptions. Both young safeties seem to be coming around and I can’t wait to see how much more they can improve before Missouri. And [tag]Roddrick Muckelroy[/tag] was simply ridiculous. He led the team with 16 tackles, 13 of them solo. Didn’t you notice every time OU ran the ball they seemed to go nowhere? Yeah, that was “Muck”. [tag]Sergio Kindle[/tag] showed again that he is scary athletic. Kindle flies around the field with reckless abandon, and the combo off him and [tag]Brian Orakpo[/tag] coming off the edges is just too much for most teams to handle.

Special Teams – Overall Grade: A

The A mainly comes from Jordan Shipley’s 96 yards kickoff return in the 2nd quarter. Texas was down 14-3 at that point and it looked like it could be a blow-out. I think that play single handedly kept Texas in the game and was the spark to get the team going. [tag]Hunter Lawrence[/tag] added 3 field goals and looks like he is a kicker that we can rely on in tough situations.

Overall Grade: A-

How can you not be pleased after that game. Even after the referees giving OU a free touchdown, Texas still prevailed. Now Texas faces the pressure of being #1, and the schedule doesn’t get any easier. They only have #11 Missouri, #8 Oklahoma State, @#7 Texas Tech, and @#16 Kansas. And did you realize the Big 12 Conference South Division has 4 teams in the top 8? That has to be a first.

For the second time this year 3 of the Top 4 teams in the nation lose. No one is safe at the top, and most of the Top 10 will be playing each other in the next few weeks so expect to see even more changes. So far this year is looking even crazier than last year.

1. [tag]Alabama[/tag]

   
   LW: 3

   Even though they didn’t play, I don’t think they deserved to be bumped down below Texas.

2. [tag]Texas[/tag]

   
   LW: 5

   Texas won with Colt’s leadership and the defense stepping up at the right times. Will Muschamp has the defense improving every week. It was kind of nice cruising through the season unnoticed, but that time is definitely over.

3. [tag]Penn State[/tag]

   
   LW: 7

   I guess I to move up Penn State after their blowout win. It looks like they are definitely the class of the Big 10, though that is not saying very much.

4. [tag]Oklahoma[/tag]

   
   LW: 1

   Sam Bradford threw for 5 touchdowns and still lost. Oklahoma has a great team and their schedule is setup to keep them in a BCS bowl game.

5. [tag]Florida[/tag]

   
   LW: 11

   I had watched Florida play a few times this year, but I have never seen the speed and precision they displayed against LSU. They have some of the fastest running backs in the nation, and if they can keep Tim Tebow from making mistakes they should be good.

6. [tag]Texas Tech[/tag]

   
   LW: 8

   Texas Tech played like crap but was surprisingly still able to come out with a win against Nebraska. They have a pretty easy road before playing Texas at home.

7. [tag]Oklahoma State[/tag]

   
   LW: 15

   Not sure if was too much of an upset, but Oklahoma State managed to put a hurting on Mizzou. Oklahoma State has proven they definitely have the offense, but do they have the defense to hang with the big boys.

8. [tag]Missouri[/tag]

   
   LW: 2

   I am actually pretty disappointed that Mizzou lost, because that would have meant Texas would play two #1 teams in a row. Now that Mizzou has lost, Texas will definitely be expected to beat them this Saturday.

9. [tag]USC[/tag]

   
   LW: 10

   Looks like USC is getting back into form after totally dominating Arizona State 28-0. They probably have the easiest schedule left of any Top 10 and will probably somehow backdoor their way into the national championship.

10. [tag]Georgia[/tag]

    
    LW: 9

    Georgia had a solid win against Tennessee but I am still not very impressed with this team. I expect them to lose 2 more games this season.

11. [tag]BYU[/tag]

    
    LW: 6

    I have decided to not leave BYU so high up in the polls. They play nobody, and until they beat Utah I will not move them any higher.

12. [tag]LSU[/tag]

    
    LW: 4

    You either smoke, or you get smoked, and LSU got smoked. That was a pretty weak performance against Florida, and if they don’t get someone to play quarterback they will struggle all season long.

13. [tag]Kansas[/tag]

    
    LW: 12

    Kansas continues to plod along and will probably go relatively unnoticed the rest of the way unless they can beat one of the big teams in the Big 12. Don’t expect that to happen.

14. [tag]Utah[/tag]

    
    LW: 13

    Utah and BYU really don’t seem much different to me. They will have to prove their ranking by beating both TCU and BYU.

15. [tag]Boise State[/tag]

    
    LW: 16

    Thank goodness we didn’t have to see them play on their ugly blue field this weekend.

16. [tag]Ohio State[/tag]

    
    LW: 17

    Luckily Ohio State beat Purdue because they are about to lose two in a row. I can’t wait to drop them out of the Top 25.

17. [tag]Michigan State[/tag]

    
    LW: 19

    Again, the only thing they have going for them is their running back, but man is he awesome. Can we trade for him?

18. [tag]Virginia Tech[/tag]

    
    LW: 18

    Does anyone really care about anyone in the ACC. They will probably all beat each other and end up with a conference champion that has 3 losses.

19. [tag]South Florida[/tag]

    
    LW: 20

    Bye week

20. [tag]North Carolina[/tag]

    
    LW: 21

    It took a last minute play, but North Carolina thankfully kept Notre Dame out of the Top 25. North Carolina is making the most out of their spot, but see Virginia Tech.

21. [tag]Wake Forest[/tag]

    
    LW: 22

    Another so-so ACC team barely holding on to their spot in the Top 25.

22. [tag]California[/tag]

    
    LW: 24

    Bye week

23. [tag]TCU[/tag]

    
    LW: –

    TCU has another huge game coming against BYU. Can they prove BYU is overrated, or will they fall back out of the Top 25?

24. [tag]Vanderbilt[/tag]

    
    LW: 14

    It was only a matter of time before Vanderbilt came back down to reality. They couldn’t handle the pressure of the being a top team and now they will probably struggle the rest of the way.

25. [tag]Tulsa[/tag]

    
    LW: 25

    They struggled a little only scoring 37, but I am sure they will get back on track and put up 60+ on UTEP.

Wow, what a great game. It seemed to have everything. Incredible quarterback play, kick-off returns, interceptions, horrible referee calls, great coaching, you name it.

Apparently [tag]Oklahoma[/tag] isn’t invincible. In fact, OU still sucks!

Time to celebrate. Thank you Mack Brown. More analysis to come.

This could be one of the biggest weekends of the year in terms of national title implications. Arguably the top four teams in the Big 12 are playing each other, #1 Oklahoma vs #5 Texas and #3 Missouri vs #17 Oklahoma State (I think Texas Tech is probably a little overrated). Then you have the two powerhouse teams in the SEC squaring off with #4 LSU traveling to the Swamp against #11 Florida. And if you feel like checking out the boring Big 10, you get to see #6 Penn State playing at Camp Randall Stadium against Wisconsin.

Let’s take a look at a game in each of the big conferences. Remember, I did go 3-1 last weekend against the spread (for around the 4th straight weekend).

#5 Texas at #1 Oklahoma (-6.5) – 12:00 PM EST on ABC. For a #5 team in the nation, Texas has managed to keep a relatively low profile this year. I think that has been a blessing in disguise since it has let the team grow without a lot of added pressure. Honestly if you asked me to pick this game at the beginning of the season, I would probably have said Oklahoma without even a doubt. But with the way Texas has played this season and their improvement on defense, they have a legitimate shot of coming out of this one with a victory. Both offenses have overpowering stats and high profile quarterbacks. Neither quarterback has faced any adversity, and I think that will change greatly for Sam Bradford this week. Will Mushcamp has something going here in Austin, and I think that will be the difference in the game. I don’t bet on this game, but the Texas moneyline looks good.

#17 Oklahoma State at #3 Missouri (-14) – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN2. The O/U is set at 77 in this one and features the #2 and #3 scoring offenses in the nation, so you know some points will be scored. Both teams are undefeated when scoring 40 or more points since 2001, but that should change this weekend. This is basically a matchup of one of the nations best rushing attacks (OSU) versus one of the nations best passing offenses (Mizzou). I always prefer a better running game since it moves the ball more consistently and wears down the defense. This game should come down to whoever has the ball last. OSU might now win this one, but I think they easily cover the 14.

#4 LSU at #11 Florida (-6.5) – 8:00 PM EST on CBS. Tim Tebow has not impressed me much this season. And losing to Ole Miss at home? Come on now. LSU also has big questions at the quarterback position, but they have the defense to win them games in the SEC. I think they key here is LSU was off last week so they have had extra time to prepare and get some players healthy. Don’t take the points on this one, take LSU moneyline.

#6 Penn State at Wisconsin (+6) – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN. Yawn. Two more boring Big 10 teams playing each other. Not sure who is really going to watch this game with the two games above starting at the same time. Maybe if both games are at commercial? Penn State did not fair well in their last trip to Camp Randall Stadium (remember Coach Pat’s broken leg?), but it should be a much different game this year. Penn State is better than Wisconsin in every phase of the game and will dominate this game. You know what, don’t watch this one, just take Penn State and win some money.