40 Acres Sports

In an effort to measure which college programs have been the most successful over the last five seasons, the Wall Street Journal has come up with The Dow Jones College-Football Success Index. I’m not sure why, but they have chosen to use a formula that calculates the success of college football teams using only NFL information. They use the number of players starting/contributing on NFL teams as one factor, which also includes how many games their NFL teams win. The other factor is a team’s “draft success” which attempts to determine whether a team’s players have lived up to their draft promise.

The Longhorns land at number sixteen, which isn’t too low except for the fact that teams like North Carolina and Texas A&M land ahead of the Horns. That’s a pretty tell-tale sign that your ranking logic is horribly skewed. They list only [tag]Derrick Dockery[/tag], [tag]Casey Hampton[/tag], and [tag]Derrick Johnson[/tag] as standout players. I guess Pro Bowlers [tag]Nathan Vasher[/tag] and [tag]Shaun Rogers[/tag], who might be the best defensive tackle in the league, don’t count as standouts.

Here’s their comment on Texas:

National champs sent only three players to the NFL this year from the nation’s top offense. One problem: Longhorns’ shotgun formation isn’t popular in the NFL.

Not a very good argument there. I’m guessing a better reason we only had three offensive player’s drafted is that the team has seven returning starters this year on that side of the football. It’s kind of hard to be drafted when you’re still in college. [tag]Vince Young[/tag] went third overall, tight end [tag]David Thomas[/tag] went in the third round to the Patriots, and tackle [tag]Jonathan Scott[/tag] was the Lions’ fifth round selection. Guard [tag]Will Allen[/tag] signed a free agent deal with the Saints and backups [tag]Matt Nordgren[/tag] and [tag]Ahmard Hall[/tag] also found teams despite not being starters at Texas. Actually seems like a pretty good success rate to me.

So basically they took a faulty premise and backed it up with terrible analysis. There’s a lot of ways to determine a successful college football program, but how many backups a school has in the NFL is probably one of the last things you should consider.

Via: The Wiz

Paris Hilton? No wonder so many teams passed on him in the draft.

Cedric Griffin should be able to contribute to their secondary right away.

I heard that’s why he fell to 7th round, I had no idea it was serious enough to miss 2006.

“In 10 years, Vince Young will have won two Super Bowls and will be a cinch Hall of Famer.”

The ESPN Insider homepage had this genius headline and teaser for an article that barely says anything similar.

Mr. Wrong?

Even though [tag]Vince Young[/tag] is an amazing talent, the Titans shouldn’t have taken him at No. 3. Tennessee needs a QB who can step in right away, and Young isn’t that guy.

The article is a pick-by-pick analysis of the first round and one of the 32 things they discuss is that the Titans should have drafted Matt Leinart because he was more ready to make an immediate impact.

I’m sure if Jeff Fisher, “whose job could be on the line if Tennessee doesn’t bounce back with a strong season,” would start Billy Volek or beg Steve McNair back if he was overly worried about losing his job. The Tennessee Titans would probably win five games with Billy Volek (and maybe six with Steve McNair) or a whopping three or four with Matt Leinart. Mel Kiper has over and over again screamed how stupid it is to draft a QB on how he’d do in the first year.

Who cares how many games a quarterback would win in 2006? None of these three first round guys are ready to play right away and shouldn’t be forced too, 2006 is probably the least important year in their NFL careers. What matters is how many games they can win in 2008 and which guy you think can lead you to a Super Bowl in 2009.

Man, it sure feels good to see Vince get off the board so early in the draft. So much craziness happened with the top 2 picks I had no idea what was going to happen to Vince.

I think Tennessee is a good fit for Vince, considering he has a chance to learn from Steve McNair who had a similar playing style when he came out of college. What I think is most interesting about this pick though, is that even Norm Chow couldn’t get Matt Leinart to come to the Titans. Definitely a telling sign if you ask me.

More analysis to come later. Now it is time to go and buy a Tennessee Titans jersey.

Update

Titans just picked up LenDale White with the 35th overall pick, best overall running back in the entire draft for Vince to hand off to now. Kind of wondering why he fell this far, but could be an absolute steal for the Titans. (5:19 pm)

We did our mock draft yesterday and now it’s time for a little more background on the players taken in the first round and which top players I think have bust written all over them. And I’ll be sure to point yet another reason Merril Hoge needs to stop looking just at measurables and actually factor in onfield performance.

Houston Texans

Trade. Trade. Trade. That’s not going to happen, but it’s still the smartest thing the Texans could do. Reggie Bush is a remarkable player and has a huge upside, but the Texans need a lot more than another running back to turn the franchise around. The New York Jets are sitting at number 4 and likely would sell their souls for a marquee name to compete with the Giants and Eli Manning. The trade value chart says the Jets would have to give up their pick at #35 and #71 along with the fourth overall to move up those three spots, and I’m willing to bet they’d do it in a heart beat. The Texans could then pick up either D’Brickashaw Ferguson or Mario Williams (who they claim to be considering at number one) in the four spot, and help address their other needs (CB, OT or DE) with the extra picks. They committed the money to David Carr saying he was their future, now draft like you want him to be alive to see it.

Update: The Texans have signed North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams to a six-year, $54 million deal. They’ve could’ve gotten a a 3rd rounder for the pick and moved down to #4 and possibly still gotten Williams. Whoops. Morons.

Tennessee Titans

There appears to be a battle between the coaching staff and the front office over which quarterback they should take at number three. The latest word is that Titans G.M. Floyd Reese wants Vince Young and that he will be their pick on Saturday. I can’t stand the analysts that keep harping on whether Young or Matt Leinart is “most ready to play now.” If you’re drafting a quarterback and base your decision on the next year or two you’re an idiot. Whichever rookie QB you trot out there in 2006 will be terrible and slightly less sucky in 2007. Draft the guy you think will have the better career and help your team win Super Bowls, not two extra games in 2006.

Detroit Lions

I don’t know how Matt Millen is going to be able to contain himself when Florida’s Chad Jackson and Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes will still be on the board when the Lions pick at nine. More likely, they’ll end up taking yet another Longhorn in Michael Huff. That would give the Detroit Longhorns much needed help in there secondary to go with former Horns Will Matthews, Cory Redding, Shaun Rogers, and Roy Williams. Millen will find a way to botch this.

Jimmy Williams

The Virginia Tech cornerback is probably the best true corner in the draft but I’m hearing a lot of negative news about Williams lately and that it may cause him to fall. It sounds like it’s mostly an attitude issue, no criminal record and no off-field stuff. It will all come down to how he came off in personal interviews with teams such as the Cardinals and Dolphins, otherwise he could fall behind some other, less worthy players.

Brodrick Bunkley, Antonio Cromartie, Ernie Sims, & Kamerion Wimbley

Man, Florida State must have been an outstanding football team this year. Oh wait, they were really average. With three very hyped first rounders on the defensive side of the ball you’d think they could’ve stopped a team like Maryland from putting up 35 points. I’ve knew of Sims and remember Cromartie, but it seems like no one was talking about most of these guys until the last couple of months. Anytime a guy shoots up the draft board based purely on workouts I wonder why if they were so damn talented were they so quiet on the football field? I don’t doubt these guys’ talent, but it takes a lot more than talent to succeed in the National Football League. Cromartie started something like one game in his entire Seminole career and missed all of 2005 with another injury. Sure he’s got great size and speed, but so do some of the other available corners who actually have more than a handful games of experience.

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That noise you hear is thousands of Texans fans groaning & tearing up their season tickets.

Not bad to have the endorsement of one of the greatest QBs of all-time.