SI.com writer Stewart Mandel has written up his predictions for all the BCS and non-BCS bowls and has the Horns headed to the Fiesta Bowl. He’s predicting [tag]Texas Tech[/tag] will win out and make it to the BCS title game. The Red Raiders winning out would make football hell freeze over but is actually the clearest path for the Horns to make it into a BCS game. Mandel’s BCS and Big 12 predictions are below:
BCS Bowls
Orange: Maryland (ACC champ) vs. Cincinnati (Big East champ)
Rose: Penn State (Big Ten champ) vs. USC (Pac-10 champ)
Sugar: Alabama (BCS at-large) vs. Utah (BCS at-large)
Fiesta: Texas (BCS at-large) vs. Ohio State (BCS at-large)
BCS Championship: Texas Tech (BCS No. 1) vs. Florida (BCS No. 2)
Big 12 non-BCS Bowls
Alamo: Missouri (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Northwestern (Big Ten No. 4)
Holiday: Oregon State (Pac-10 No. 2) vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 3)
Toilet: Michigan (Big 10 No. 9) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 No. 11)
Sun: Arizona (Pac-10 No. 3) vs. Nebraska (Big 12 No. 5)
Insight: Minnesota (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Kansas (Big 12 No. 6)
Cotton: Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 2) vs. LSU (SEC)
The Longhorns prevailed Saturday in a 35 – 7 win over the Kansas Jayhawks on the road. Road wins in the Big 12 should never be taken for granted, especially with weather conditions including a 30 MPH wind and 30 degree temps. Quarterback [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag] had a good day both on the ground and through the air, but the star of the afternoon was Will Muschamp’s defense. Watch brief highlights of the game below:
Follow along below with our live thoughts and analysis during today’s Texas Longhorns game versus [tag]Kansas[/tag] on FSN. Participate in the discussion by following 40acressports on Twitter or by refreshing and commenting on this post.
Texas vs. Kansas tweets
- RT @suzhalliburton: Just saw Blake Gideon. Am told he’s fine. I was standing with Quan Cosby and Gideon waved at the WR. #UT postgame
- A couple of good Jeremy Hills runs and then a kneel down ends the game. Final score: #UT 35, KU 7 late fourth quarter
- And the defense holds despite the extra and goal snaps for KU. Sack and fumble recovery by #UT on 4th and goal from the one. Big stop. during fourth quarter
- Has Chykie Brown been playing today? If he’s not healthy why is he playing now? Did I just miss him earlier? during fourth quarter
- Roughing passer by R Palmer is huge penalty. Gives KU 1st down instead of 4th and long. Now #UT defense needs 4 more stops. during fourth quarter
- Backups are in for #UT defense in front 7. We need stops and to hold them at 7, every point matters this time of year. Right @kbohls ? during fourth quarter
- Texas safeties are really hitting today. Gideon, Scott, and Thomas have all gotten in a good lick or 2 for #UT defense. during fourth quarter
- Great run by Fozzy. We’re definitely trying to milk the clock here. Love to see long drive and get some points, then get Colt out of there. during fourth quarter
- Collins makes up for his false start by getting wide open on post route. Looked just like play last week against BU. 36 yd TD. #UT 35, KU 7 during third quarter
- Christian Scott sure likes to fly around at safety. Big hit, strip the RB, then recovers the fumble for #UT. Texas needs to put this away. during third quarter
- Not sure where the safety was but Cosby makes the catch on the slant on 3rd down for the TD. Good protection & good throw. #UT 28, KU 7 during third quarter
- Three straight Kirkendoll catches. That was a LOOOONG WR screen/hitch. Don’t like the play call but Kirk fought and got the 1st down. during third quarter
- Very nice catch on a quick slant by James Kirkendoll gets #UT another first down. during third quarter
- First long McCoy run in several weeks. Middle of the field opened up wide for him and he took off for 25 yards out to midfield. during third quarter
- Christian Scott catches like the guy he replaced (Gideon). Scott can’t hang on to the floater. #UT during third quarter
- Why do our DBs interfere after they’ve got great coverage? Beasley was there but got a little handsy once the ball was in the air. #UT during third quarter
- Blake Gideon is down with head/neck injury. Took a big hit from KU RB. during third quarter
- Wild 4th and long catch by KU extends drive and KU punches it in. Huge play keeps Kansas in the game. #UT 21, KU 7 during third quarter
- Blitzes by #UT defense have been successful today but KU has given QB decent time if we only bring 4. during third quarter
- Why can’t we run block like that outside the red zone? Another easy TD run, this time by Chris O. #UT 21, KU 0 during third quarter
- KU moved first and then Dockery. Bad false start call by refs but it was a close one. Sets up tough 3rd and 15. during third quarter
- #UT fakes the FG on 4th down and Shipley flies over top of everyone for 1st. Aggressive 3rd and 4th down play calls. during third quarter
- #UT will start 2nd half with good field position as kickoff goes out of bounds. start of third quarter
- RT @bevobeat: Halftime stats: Run yds: TX 38, KU 3 … Pass yds: TX 122, KU 99 … First downs: TX 12, KU 4 … McCoy 14 of 19 passing. during halftime
- Click to view first half…
Will Texas win (and with style) in Lawrence?
Texas is still sitting in great shape in the BCS rankings but has to keep winning for any of it to matter. Up this week is [tag]Kansas[/tag] who put a big scare into Texas faithful the last time the Horns went to Lawrence. This week the Horns must overcome injuries and weather but they’re the better team and will be two touchdown favorites at kickoff.
Will the banged up offensive line be able to protect [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag]? Can the running game help negate the bad weather? Will the Texas defense keep Lake Travis’ own Todd Reesing scrambling for his life? Find out what the editors on the 40 Acres think below…
Brian – Texas needs an impressive performance today in hopes of jumping [tag]Oklahoma[/tag] in the Coaches Poll, but with 20 MPH winds and wind chill of around 27° at kickoff points may be a little harder to come by. The Horns need to come out strong, let [tag]Foswhitt Whittaker[/tag] loose, and let the running game drive the offense for the first time all year. The KU offensive line has been pretty porous all year, so I expect a big game from whoever is healthy enough to play on the defensive line for Texas. Texas 35 – Kansas 14.
Matt – Expect weather to be a factor, as a cold front is coming in so it will be colder and windier than usual. So far this season Kansas hasn’t lived up to expectations, but they have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 and are always a threat to put up some points. Texas needs to keep winning in order to keep their National Championship hopes alive, so I expect to see their best effort this weekend. They have learned to not take any opponents for granted (aka the last time they played in Lawrence, KS). The spread here is 13, which is no where near enough. Texas will win by 20. Texas 40 – Kansas 20.
Mike – This has all the makings for a trap game. The game is early and on the road, Texas is beat up physically and most likely mentally, Kansas can put up points, and it is going to be cold. The problem for Kansas is that so many people have been asking Texas about the possibility of a let down game that I think the team wants nothing more than to play football. The fact is Kansas is just not that good. Anything is possible on any given Saturday, but Texas is just plain better at every position on the field. The only way Kansas has is to force turnovers and make big plays. The Longhorns have been good at minimizing both of those aspects from this season. UT wins this one going away. Texas 51 – Kansas 23
Bad news on the injury front this week for the [tag]Kansas[/tag] game. We knew starting center [tag]Chris Hall[/tag] would be out with a knee injury but cornerback [tag]Aaron Williams[/tag] and tight end [tag]Ian Harris[/tag] are also out. The true freshman Williams has been big for the secondary filling in and playing well while starting corner [tag]Chykie Brown[/tag] was out, fortunately Brown is not on this week’s injury report.
Listed as questionable are two key members of the defensive line in end [tag]Brian Orakpo[/tag] and tackle [tag]Lamarr Houston[/tag]. Both players could play and rumors are both should be on the field today in Lawrence. Safety [tag]Ben Wells[/tag] is also questionable.
With the offensive line injury, off field, and performance issues the last few weeks it is very good news that left tackle [tag]Adam Ulatoski[/tag] is probable.
LOL Mangino
#3 Texas at Kansas (+13) – 12:30 PM EST on FSN. Definitely can’t take this game lightly after what happened last time in Lawrence, KS. Expect weather to be a factor, as a cold front is coming in so it will be colder and windier than usual. So far this season Kansas hasn’t lived up to expectations, but they have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 and are always a threat to put up some points. Texas didn’t have their best game last week, which probably isn’t too much of a surprise in a letdown game against Baylor. Texas should get things back on track this weekend and I see them destroying Kansas. Give the points.
#25 South Carolina at #4 Florida (-22) – 3:30 PM EST on CBS. In my opinion Florida is the best team in the nation right now. Their speed on offense is absolutely ridiculous, and Tebow continues to just enough to not screw up. I think I could run an offense if all I had to do was hand the ball that Harvin, Demps, or Rainey. South Carolina has no shot in this game simply because they don’t have the speed to keep up with Florida, and the game is being played at the Swamp. This one could be over in the 1st quarter. Take Florida.
Boston College at #19 Florida St (-6) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. Not really much to watch at night, but this match-up in the ACC will go a long way in determining who will be playing for the ACC championship. I think this game will come down to whether or not Florida State can impose their will and continue to run the ball as well as they have been lately. Boston College is no slouch on defense, allowing only 102 yards per game. Both teams don’t really have high-powered offenses, so I see this one staying close. Boston College should stay within the 6 points here.
Texas enters their last road game of the year with a beat up football team. The weather is supposed to be bad with wind and cold weather in the forecast and a number of Longhorn players are banged up. As always players such as Colt McCoy and Roddrick Muckelroy will need to play well for Texas to keep their conference and national championship hopes alive, but some guys under the radar will have to step up to come away with the win.
[tag]Vondrell McGee[/tag]
With the emergence of Chris Ogbonnaya and the comeback of a healthy Foswhitt Whittaker, the sophomore has become a forgotten man in the Longhorn backfield. Ogbonnaya is still suffering through an ankle injury while Whittaker doesn’t have the body to carry an entire games worth of runs. Because of this McGee has found himself still getting carries after a slow start to the season. In fairness to McGee he was banged up as well early in the year but appears to be back close to 100%. Quietly McGee has played extremely well in the last few weeks. On the road, especially in windy and cold conditions, good teams need to be able to get some plays out of the running game. Whittaker will be the main guy, but if McGee can come in and keep the chains moving the Longhorns may be able to wear out an undersized Kansas defense. McGee performs best when he is coming off the bench and with Whittaker and maybe Ogbonnaya in front of him this week McGee is right where he needs to be.
[tag]David Snow[/tag]
Last week many were wondering if the true freshman from Gilmer was beginning to push the older guys at the guard position for some serious playing time. The coaching staff loves Snow’s mean streak and competitive nature. This week starting center Chris Hall went down in practice with a leg injury and with the dismissal of Buck Burnette for racist comments on the internet Snow finds himself the starting center for the first time in his career. Snow should get a challenge in his first start because it is on the road and opposing teams have been found of blitzing Colt McCoy. Snow has played mostly guard on the season, but Mack Brown says he still practices snaps before every practice. Certainly Snow has concentrated more on center for the past week and a half after the dismissal of Burnette. Having the quarterback in the shotgun for the majority of the game should help the young center, but if Texas looks lost in blitz pickup we’ll know the freshman is taking his lumps.
[tag]Sergio Kindle[/tag]
Of course everyone looks for Kindle every game. He has become a dominant force on the Texas defense, and may have done enough over the season to become a hot target in this year’s NFL draft. This week don’t necessarily just watch Kindle’s play, watch where the junior lines up. Kindle is listed as a linebacker, but as the season progresses he has been lined up more and more at defensive end. For the first part of the season he only did this on obvious passing downs, but with Brian Orakpo missing last week’s game Kindle lined up at defensive end almost exclusively. Kindle excels when playing downhill and coming off the edge. He has struggled in space on pass coverage, so Will Muschamp has turned Kindle into Texas’ version of Lawrence Taylor. Orakpo is expected to be back, but it is unlikely he will be at full strength. Look to see the ratio of snaps at defensive end to linebacker for Kindle this week.
[tag]Earl Thomas[/tag]
The red-shirt freshman safety played his best game of his young college career last week against Baylor, a week after being one of the two players that gave up Michael Crabtree’s winning touchdown in Lubbock. It was huge for Thomas to bounce back and he did, showing the mental toughness that Muschamp has been glowing about since spring practice. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the young Texas secondary faces another tough test in the passing game. The young safeties have had their struggles on the season but they have played extremely well for the most part. The best evidence for that was the long pass play the Texas defense gave up on the first play Thomas was out with a minor injury. Ben Wells came in to replace Thomas and got beat deep for the only long passing play Baylor was able to muster against the Longhorns. Thomas was able to come back into the game and continued to play well. He may have been the best player on the field for UT’s defense last week and that kind of play will be huge again for Texas to avoid an upset in Lawrence.
[tag]Ryan Bailey[/tag]/[tag]Hunter Lawrence[/tag]
Most fans are hoping this game doesn’t come down to a field goal. Not because they don’t have confidence in the Texas kicking game, but because they feel UT should be able to win big against a struggling Kansas team. The last time Texas went to Lawrence they barely came out with a victory, so a close game is not out of the question. After being the place kicker last year Ryan Bailey lost his job in fall camp to Hunter Lawrence. The change had come without much fanfare because Lawrence was perfect on the season. That changed last week when Lawrence missed both of his field goals. In the end the misses did not matter, but when Texas lined up for their third field goat attempt Ryan Bailey trotted out for the try. Bailey made the kick and the questions about who would be the kicker going forward began before the referees even raised their arms. Bailey didn’t appear to do anything to loss his job, and he has proven he can make big kicks as he did in Nebraska. The coaches said Lawrence didn’t kick the last field goal because he was “sore”. We will know on the first field goal attempt if this was just lip service or not.
Will the Texas defense overwhelm Kansas?
The Texas Longhorns visit [tag]Kansas[/tag] this Saturday in what could become a classic trap game. They’re on the road, it will be cold, injuries are piling up, and they’re facing an underachieving team. The Jayhawks have struggled this season after shocking the college football world last season. With all the BCS scenarios out there, the only thing Texas can control is how they handle Jayhawks. The last time a favored Longhorn team looking for a BCS berth went to Lawrence they got saved by a questionable pass interference call. Texas won’t get the benefit of refereeing on Saturday, so they must win it with a solid effort.
When Texas has the ball
Texas played a good game last week in the win against [tag]Baylor[/tag] even if it wasn’t as dominating of a performance as some would have liked. Texas quarterback [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag] continued his good play by throwing for 300 yards and five touchdown passes. Baylor was able to get into the passing lanes by dropping as many as nine defenders on passing plays. The Bears were able to get their hands on a number of McCoy passes and even were able to intercept three of the attempts on the day.
It doesn’t appear any Big 12 defenses match up with the opposing offenses and Kansas is no different. The only thing that will stop the Longhorn offense is the Longhorn offense. The thing to watch is the offensive line play when Kansas blitzes. Junior [tag]Chris Hall[/tag] is going to miss the game, and with the dismissal of backup [tag]Buck Burnette[/tag] last week, true freshman [tag]David Snow[/tag] will get the start. It will be his first start and it will come on the road. Snow has played a bunch this year, but mostly at guard, and his calls up front will be key for protection. The coaching staff has been very high on the former Gilmer star and he’ll look to show why on Saturday.
On the road in November is where a team needs a running game. It isn’t enough to run the ball when the other team lets you. A great team needs to be able to run the ball when the referees, the fans, and the opposing defense know the run is coming. Texas has yet to be able to do that this year, and it is unlikely that a running game is going to appear. Help has come in the way of [tag]Foswhitt Whittaker[/tag], but even the speedy freshman is not going to be the complete answer. With McCoy beat up and unwilling to be the running threat he was early in the year UT will continue to use a stable of backs. If Texas can come out and dominate the line of scrimmage this game will not be close, unfortunately that has been something this team has lacked thus far.
The Longhorn offense will continue to go as McCoy goes. The lack of a consistent running game has put a huge load on the junior’s shoulders. He has responded in every way possible, and he is most likely going to have to do it again in order for UT to keep their national title hopes alive. The Longhorns are only one of five teams in the nation to have two receivers with over 60 catches on the season, and it is likely McCoy will continue to rely heavily on [tag]Jordan Shipley[/tag] and [tag]Quan Cosby[/tag]. Cosby played last week through an injury and should be able to go again this week. Any help from another receiver would be a bonus.
When Kansas has the ball
The good news is that superstar [tag]Brian Orakpo[/tag] should be back and ready to go after missing last week’s game because of injury. The bad news is Texas is facing another quarterback that wants to send a statement to the UT coaching staff that they should have recruited him. Texas passed the first test when they spoiled the dream of [tag]Missouri[/tag] quarterback Chase Daniel. The Longhorns face another life long Horn in the form of former Lake Travis star Todd Reesing.
Kansas has struggled protecting Reesing lately, and that figures to play right into the Longhorn defenses strength. In many ways Kansas offers the same set of challenges that the Missouri offense provided. Texas was able to get pressure on Daniel and cause disruption by getting their hands up in the passing lane. The defensive line was able to knock down numerous balls allowing the group to apply pressure because Missouri was in countless third and longs. Reesing is another quarterback under six feet, in fact it is probably the reason he is not wearing burnt orange on Saturday. Will Muschamp’s defense must disrupt the rhythm of Kansas’ offense by making them one dimensional and attacking. The only way Kansas hurts Texas is if the Jayhawks can get enough out of their running game to keep Texas out of pinning their ears back on third down.
On paper it would appear the Longhorn front seven has nothing to worry about when it comes to Kansas’ run game. After a great start the linebacking unit for the Horns has struggled in the last few weeks tackling in space. Kansas does a good job of getting their skill players in space and exploiting the other team’s lack of athleticism. They don’t necessarily line up and run it at you, but they do a good job with screens and dump passes of getting their backs involved. The Longhorns will look to get pressure with four so the linebackers can shadow what the backfield of the Jayhawks tries to do.
The group under the most pressure will be the secondary. Texas has been up and down in the back of their defense, sometimes in the same game, but that is to be expected with such a young group. They have been challenged seemingly every week, and they face another test on Saturday. Kansas is also one of the five teams in the nation with two receivers with over 60 receptions. The group is led by former quarterback Kerry Meier. He is great at running routes and finding holes in the zone. Texas is hoping [tag]Chykie Brown[/tag] is back from injury, but odds are even if he is the defense will look to put a number of bodies on Meier.
The Longhorns need to get some stops early so the offense can put the game away. If Texas can put some distance in between them and the underdog Jayhawks this one will turn into a route.
Some really good match-ups this weekend, especially in the Big 12. You get to start off the day with Texas Tech playing on the road in Kansas, and then get to watch the #1 Texas Longhorns play Oklahoma State in the afternoon. Then you get to finish on the day with Penn State playing at Ohio State in the late game on ABC. Overall not a bad Saturday, not bad at all.
Now I did only go 2-2 last week, but I am still around 70% for the season. This weekend should be good.
#8 Texas Tech vs. #23 Kansas (PK) – 12:00 PM EST on ESPN. Texas Tech is 7-0 for the first time since 1976, but their undefeated is in serious jeopardy this weekend playing at Kansas. Kansas has proven they can score and Texas Tech’s defense has been looking pretty week in the last 2 weeks. The over/under in this one is around 68, which is not nearly enough for these two teams. Look for this one to be in the 80s as Kansas pulls out the victory in the end.
#6 Oklahoma State vs. #1 Texas (-12.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. Texas doesn’t get a break as they face another top ranked team for the 3rd straight week. I think Texas has proven they can handle the pressure of being #1 in the nation by demolishing Mizzou last weekend. Even though Texas has won 10 straight in this match-up, Oklahoma State has been a trouble spot for Texas in recent years, needing many a miracle 2nd half comeback to pull out the victory. I think this year Texas will jump out early at home and continue to apply pressure throughout the game. Give the points in this one.
#7 Georgia vs. #13 LSU (-1.5) – 3:30 PM EST on CBS. To me this one seems pretty simple. LSU has nothing at the quarterback position, and that will kill you with the SEC defenses. LSU’s defense struggled mightily against Florida’s speed, and it will probably be more of the same against Georgia. I really hate to go against LSU, but my gut tells me they don’t have a shot in this one.
#3 Penn State vs. #9 Ohio State (+2) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. This one might be the toughest on the board. You can make pretty good arguments both ways. Ohio State has been playing much better since getting blown out by USC, but Penn State has just been dominating every opponent. To me this one just comes down to offense. Ohio State struggles to score points, and Penn State averages 45 points per game. Even though this one is at OSU, take Penn State minus the points.
Not sure any weekend will be able to top the match-ups we saw on Saturday, but there are plenty of good games to watch tomorrow. You get to start your day off with an early SEC battle with #22 Vanderbilt playing at #10 Georgia. Then you get a nice afternoon game with #16 Kansas playing at #4 Oklahoma. After that I suggest you take a quick nap and then it will be time for #1 Texas to take on #11 Mizzou in the marquee match-up of the day. Gameday will be in Austin, as will I.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the big games. FYI, I went 3-1 last weekend against the spread (for around the 5th straight weekend). Hopefully some of you are making some money with me.
#22 Vanderbilt at #10 Georgia (-15) – 12:30 PM EST on ESPN Gameplan. How will Vanderbilt respond to their first loss of the season? I’ll tell you how, they will get destroyed by Georgia in Athens. Let’s just take a quick look at the numbers here. Georgia is averaging 440 yards in total offense and Vanderbilt is only averaging 262.5 yards. Georgia is averaging 280.8 yards passing and Vanderbilt is only averaging 102.7 yards. This has blow-out written all over it.
#16 Kansas at #4 Oklahoma (-20) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. Talk about a line jump, this game was set to open at 14 and was immediately bumped up to 20. Seems like a big number to me. Oklahoma’s best defensive player Ryan Reynolds is out for the season and their defense is fresh off allowing 438 yards to Texas. Kansas’ 7th ranked passing offense should keep them in the game. I don’t expect Kansas to win, but I think they can hang in there and not lose by 3 touchdowns.
#12 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State (+3.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. I guess you won’t really be able to watch this game since the OU game will be on, but this one could get interesting. Ohio State should be on high upset alert as Michigan State has been on a roll winning their last 6 games. You may know by now I am a big advocate of the run game, and that is where Michigan State excels with Javon Ringer already racking up over 1100 yards. And just so you know since Pryor took over the quarterback duties from Boeckman, the Buckeyes have had the 10th worst passing offense averaging 128 yards per game. I am liking Michigan State here, money-line.
#11 Missouri at #1 Texas (-5) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. I remember reading Hornfans last week and noticing most people seemed pretty level headed in that it would take a great game to beat OU. Now if you read Hornfans you will see a lot of people talking about how we will dominate Mizzou and how we will be all over Chase Daniel, etc, etc. This scares me a little. Missouri is a tough team and they don’t average 555 yards (383 yards passing) for nothing. And then you have the fact that Texas just gave up 5 passing touchdowns and you can see where my concern is. With all of that said I think Texas will be up for this game and ready to defend their #1 ranking. Home field advantage is the key here.
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