Not sure any weekend will be able to top the match-ups we saw on Saturday, but there are plenty of good games to watch tomorrow. You get to start your day off with an early SEC battle with #22 Vanderbilt playing at #10 Georgia. Then you get a nice afternoon game with #16 Kansas playing at #4 Oklahoma. After that I suggest you take a quick nap and then it will be time for #1 Texas to take on #11 Mizzou in the marquee match-up of the day. Gameday will be in Austin, as will I.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the big games. FYI, I went 3-1 last weekend against the spread (for around the 5th straight weekend). Hopefully some of you are making some money with me.
#22 Vanderbilt at #10 Georgia (-15) – 12:30 PM EST on ESPN Gameplan. How will Vanderbilt respond to their first loss of the season? I’ll tell you how, they will get destroyed by Georgia in Athens. Let’s just take a quick look at the numbers here. Georgia is averaging 440 yards in total offense and Vanderbilt is only averaging 262.5 yards. Georgia is averaging 280.8 yards passing and Vanderbilt is only averaging 102.7 yards. This has blow-out written all over it.
#16 Kansas at #4 Oklahoma (-20) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. Talk about a line jump, this game was set to open at 14 and was immediately bumped up to 20. Seems like a big number to me. Oklahoma’s best defensive player Ryan Reynolds is out for the season and their defense is fresh off allowing 438 yards to Texas. Kansas’ 7th ranked passing offense should keep them in the game. I don’t expect Kansas to win, but I think they can hang in there and not lose by 3 touchdowns.
#12 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State (+3.5) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. I guess you won’t really be able to watch this game since the OU game will be on, but this one could get interesting. Ohio State should be on high upset alert as Michigan State has been on a roll winning their last 6 games. You may know by now I am a big advocate of the run game, and that is where Michigan State excels with Javon Ringer already racking up over 1100 yards. And just so you know since Pryor took over the quarterback duties from Boeckman, the Buckeyes have had the 10th worst passing offense averaging 128 yards per game. I am liking Michigan State here, money-line.
#11 Missouri at #1 Texas (-5) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. I remember reading Hornfans last week and noticing most people seemed pretty level headed in that it would take a great game to beat OU. Now if you read Hornfans you will see a lot of people talking about how we will dominate Mizzou and how we will be all over Chase Daniel, etc, etc. This scares me a little. Missouri is a tough team and they don’t average 555 yards (383 yards passing) for nothing. And then you have the fact that Texas just gave up 5 passing touchdowns and you can see where my concern is. With all of that said I think Texas will be up for this game and ready to defend their #1 ranking. Home field advantage is the key here.
Good interview up on Dan Patrick’s site with Dan and [tag]Colt McCoy[/tag]. Colt talks about beating OU, being on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and of course the SI cover jinx. Click play to listen to the eight minute interview below:
Cotton Bowl in Dallas
Let’s take a look at a game in each of the big conferences. Remember, I did go 3-1 last weekend against the spread (for around the 4th straight weekend).
#5 Texas at #1 Oklahoma (-6.5) – 12:00 PM EST on ABC. For a #5 team in the nation, Texas has managed to keep a relatively low profile this year. I think that has been a blessing in disguise since it has let the team grow without a lot of added pressure. Honestly if you asked me to pick this game at the beginning of the season, I would probably have said Oklahoma without even a doubt. But with the way Texas has played this season and their improvement on defense, they have a legitimate shot of coming out of this one with a victory. Both offenses have overpowering stats and high profile quarterbacks. Neither quarterback has faced any adversity, and I think that will change greatly for Sam Bradford this week. Will Mushcamp has something going here in Austin, and I think that will be the difference in the game. I don’t bet on this game, but the Texas moneyline looks good.
#17 Oklahoma State at #3 Missouri (-14) – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN2. The O/U is set at 77 in this one and features the #2 and #3 scoring offenses in the nation, so you know some points will be scored. Both teams are undefeated when scoring 40 or more points since 2001, but that should change this weekend. This is basically a matchup of one of the nations best rushing attacks (OSU) versus one of the nations best passing offenses (Mizzou). I always prefer a better running game since it moves the ball more consistently and wears down the defense. This game should come down to whoever has the ball last. OSU might now win this one, but I think they easily cover the 14.
#4 LSU at #11 Florida (-6.5) – 8:00 PM EST on CBS. Tim Tebow has not impressed me much this season. And losing to Ole Miss at home? Come on now. LSU also has big questions at the quarterback position, but they have the defense to win them games in the SEC. I think they key here is LSU was off last week so they have had extra time to prepare and get some players healthy. Don’t take the points on this one, take LSU moneyline.
#6 Penn State at Wisconsin (+6) – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN. Yawn. Two more boring Big 10 teams playing each other. Not sure who is really going to watch this game with the two games above starting at the same time. Maybe if both games are at commercial? Penn State did not fair well in their last trip to Camp Randall Stadium (remember Coach Pat’s broken leg?), but it should be a much different game this year. Penn State is better than Wisconsin in every phase of the game and will dominate this game. You know what, don’t watch this one, just take Penn State and win some money.
Watch Peter King talk out of his ass.
Watch this video of SI’s Peter King then read my rant below…
Somehow the various talking head NFL experts have somehow gotten it into their head that Kerry Collins is the solution at quarterback in Tennessee. Peter King in the linked video is just the latest example of these guys speaking as if Collins is having some great season and [tag]Vince Young[/tag] is a chump. That argument isn’t sound and fails under the least bit of inspection.
Collins isn’t actually playing well. I’m not sure what games anyone is watching or box scores they’re looking at that say he is.
Until this week he was doing a MUCH better job of not turning the ball over than Vince but otherwise he’s been mediocre. Collins has completed just over 50% of his passes and is throwing for less than a touchdown per game. How is that good? His completion percentage is almost seven points lower than Vince’s was last year. Oh, and Collins’ yards per attempt this year are also lower than Vince’s in 2007.
If you take Collins’ numbers over four starts and assume he started 15 games (the number Vince played in last year) and he’d have 11.25 touchdowns and 11.25 picks over the course of the season. Is that really that much better than Young’s 9 and 17 last year? Last stat: Young’s QB rating in 2007 was 71.1 and Collins’ this year is only two points higher at 73.1.
2007 was an admittedly bad season for Vince but somehow the same numbers are good for Collins? How’s that logic work again?
So after all that… you are seriously going to tell me the Titans are going to cut their future and take a big hit on the salary cap because of VY’s bonus, so they can pay and play a 36-year old QB who isn’t very good? Give me a break. Peter King is talking out of his butt on this one.
Coach him up, get his head right, and help him understand he doesn’t have to make a huge play every time. If you cut down on INT’s and then there’s absolutely no facet of the game Collins is better than Vince. Vince was not good last year, but he has a future and a ton of potential. Let Collins be the backup or go be average somewhere else.
Texas vs. Colorado in the Big 12 Championship
Conference play is in full swing this weekend with many teams getting their first real test of the season. The Big 12 now has 4 teams in the Top 10, with all of them on the road. It will be interesting to see if they can all come out unscathed. If Texas and Oklahoma both win their Big 12 openers, they will face off next week in a possible #1 versus #5 match-up.
Let’s take a look at a game in each of the big conferences. Remember, I did go 3-1 last weekend against the spread.
#13 Auburn at #19 Vanderbilt (+4) – 6:00 PM EST on ESPN. Vanderbilt is definitely one of the surprises of the season. And after last week their win against Ole Miss is looking that much better. Auburn has been anemic on offense and basically riding their defense to wins. With two weeks to prepare and home field, Vanderbilt has the advantage in this one. It will probably be close, but take Vandy to win.
#7 Texas at Colorado (+13) – 7:00 PM EST on FSN. There are a couple of things that worry me about this game. First, it is an almost night game in Boulder. The fans will be crazy (probably drunk) and it is tough to play with that thin air. Second, the last time we played Colorado we beat them 70-3 and knocked out their quarterback. I’m pretty sure Colorado is looking for a little revenge and will keep that previous game in mind. And finally, this game comes a week before the Red River Rivalry, so there is definitely a possibility that the Horns will be looking ahead. Now with all of that said, I still think Texas has too much offense for Colorado to handle. And with the improved defense I don’t see Colorado doing too much. Texas needs to jump out to a quick start to kill the hopes for the Buffaloes. If they do that they should roll.
#23 Oregon at #9 USC (O/U 57) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. Everyone wants to see how USC will respond after getting smoked by Oregon State last week. I don’t expect to see a blowout or anything against Oregon, but I do expect to see USC’s A game. Both teams can score almost at will and this will probably be the typical Pac-10 shootout. Look for each team to score in the 40s and take the over in this one.
#14 Ohio State at #18 Wisconsin (+2) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. Hardly anyone comes out of Camp Randall with a victory, with Wisconsin winning their last 16 at home and 27 of the last 28. Ohio State has now turned over the reigns to Terrelle Pryor, and with Beanie Wells back from injury their offense is heating back up. As long as their defense can do a decent job against the Badgers, Ohio State should be able to come out with the victory. Actually on second thought this game probably shouldn’t be on the “what to watch” list since it will probably be pretty boring. Just take Ohio State and cash-in in the morning.
Mack and McConaughey
Let’s see what is going on this Saturday. Remember, I did go 3-1 last weekend against the spread.
Arkansas at #7 Texas (-27) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. When these two teams were first scheduled to meet, both were sitting at 2-0. Now things look a bit different with Texas coasting to victory against Rice and Arkansas getting blown out at home against Alabama. The Texas Longhorns are huge favorites for the 4th straight week, and deservedly so. Texas is averaging 48.7 points per game (6th in nation) and should easily score in the 50’s again at home against a weak Arkansas defense. The only potential for trouble is the Arkansas passing game against the young Texas secondary. Lucky Casey Dick is prone to making some mistakes. This one should be another easy cover with the Longhorns winning by 35.
#24 TCU at #2 Oklahoma (-18) – 7:00 PM EST on FCSA. With USC losing, Oklahoma now has the opportunity to make a statement to becoming the #1 team in the nation. There is no way Oklahoma overlooks this game since TCU has managed to beat them in Norman twice in a row. So far this season Oklahoma is destroying teams by an average margin of 35.3 points per game and this Saturday will be no different. TCU’s defense has been impressive, but I doubt they have ever seen an offense like they will face this weekend. This might be the easiest cover of the weekend with Oklahoma winning by 30+.
#8 Alabama at #3 Georgia (-7) – 7:45 PM EST on ESPN. Probably the game to watch this weekend. Alabama looks like they are going to be a legit SEC contender and Georgia is still trying to prove they belong at the top. Georgia will be wearing the cool black uniforms trying their best to look like a high school football team. If you like tough, physical football, this game is for you. Both teams boast impressive running games and stout defenses. This game will probably be one of those typical 14-10 SEC games. But in this one I think Alabama comes out the winner with their running game and offensive line. So take Alabama money-line on this one.
#22 Illinois at #12 Penn St (-16) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. I don’t normally care about or watch Big 10 match-ups, but I am interested in seeing how Penn St looks against Illinois. Penn St is scoring 52.7 points per game, and probably won’t be stopped Saturday. Take them to cover. Here is something to think about. Penn St demolished Oregon St. Oregon St dominated USC. USC killed Ohio St. I still haven’t figured out what that means about Ohio St and the Big 10, but on first thought I would lean towards the Pac-10 and Big 10 sucking.
LSU beating up on Auburn
Let’s see what is going on this Saturday. Remember, I did go 2-1 last weekend against the spread.
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (+3) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. The best news in this game might well be the fact that [tag]Stephen McGee[/tag] is injured and might not play. [tag]Jerrod Johnson[/tag] has shown some promise already this season and is probably a better option than McGee. Remember last year when Miami killed Aggy on the national stage? Well you can expect more of the same this year. Aggy will start the season 0-2 at home.
Rice at #7 Texas (-29) – 7:00 PM EST on FSN. After Hurricane Ike I am sure these two teams are ready to get back on the playing field and resume some normalcy. Rice doesn’t seem as bad this year as they normally do, but they still have no shot against Texas. Rice can actually score some points, so this will another good warm-up for the Texas defense before the real schedule starts. Rice might actually be a tough cover, but I see us winning by about 35.
#18 Wake Forest at #24 Florida State (-4) – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Florida St is currently #1 in the nation in overall defense, allowing only 170 yards per game, but that is a little deceiving since they have played two Football Championship Subdivision teams. Wake Forest has owned Florida State in recent years and is the only team to shut-out FSU at home in coach Bobby Bowdens’ career. FSU is the favorite in this game for a reason. They are much more talented in the skill positions and are playing at home. I think this game might be close, but FSU will end up winning by 7 and cover the spread.
#6 LSU at #10 Auburn (+2.5) – 7:45 PM EST on ESPN. By far the premier match-up of the weekend. With two of the best defenses in the country squaring off Saturday night, this has all of the makings to be a 7-6 game. If you only score 3 points against Mississippi St, something is wrong with your offense. Even though they are playing at home, Auburn has the real potential to be shut-out. LSU’s offense is nothing to write home about either, but they should be able to put something together. I see LSU winning this game 17-6.
Honestly, there really aren’t too many exciting games to watch this weekend. It’s almost like all of college football is waiting for next week’s match-up of USC and Ohio State. The game to watch this weekend has to be Miami at Florida. Florida hasn’t beat Miami in 23 years but will come into this game as huge favorites. Definitely something to watch before the Texas/UTEP game kicks off. Let’s see what else looks good this weekend.
Cincinnati at #4 Oklahoma (O/U 53) – 3:30 PM EST on ABC. After barely breaking a sweat last week against Chattanooga, I am pretty interested in seeing what Oklahoma will do against a real team in Cincinnati. Now I am not saying Cincinnati is a world beater or anything, but they have been making some real improvements in their program and are coming off of a bowl win. Oklahoma looks unstoppable, and the Bearcats run a spread offense, so this game as the potential to be a very high scoring affair. I think this game easily goes over the 53 point total, and probably more around the 70 mark.
Miami (FL) at #7 Florida (-23) – 8:00 PM EST on ESPN. Like I mentioned above Florida hasn’t beaten Miami in 23 years, so I expect Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators to be pretty jacked up for this game. But even though they are heavy favorites, you can never know what to expect in these in-state rivalry games. I don’t think Miami will pull out the victory in this one, but I think their defense can keep them in it enough to cover the 23 points they are getting.
#10 Texas at UTEP (+27) – 10:15 PM EST on ESPN2. Texas looked really impressive on offense last week and should continue that trend this weekend against UTEP. UTEP struggled in their opening match-up against Buffalo allowing 484 yards and 42 points. Hopefully this will be a good opportunity for the Texas secondary to get on track. I’m sure [tag]Will Muschamp[/tag] gave them an earful after getting beat several times last week against [tag]Florida Atlantic[/tag]. Even though this game is on the road, I see Texas winning by 35 and easily covering the spread.
Posted August 28th, 2008 by Brian
Filed under: Football, Quick Hits, TV
Programming providers announced for Texas-FAU pay-per-view telecast. Find out who is airing the game in your area.
Everything is right again in the world now that the college football season kicks off the 2008 season tonight. Since most schools schedule cupcakes for the season opener, you obviously can’t expect any marquee match-ups. But you know what? I don’t care. All that matters is that I get to watch ESPN Gameday Saturday morning and follow that with 10 hours of college football. Let’s see what looks good this weekend.
(23) Wake Forest at Baylor (+12) – 8:00 PM EST (Thur) on FSN. The Big 12 starts of the season with Baylor playing a tough Wake Forest team. Former Houston coach Art Briles takes the helm for the Bears, hopefully ushering in a new era down in Waco. Unfortunately it looks like they will be overmatched by a Wake Forest team returning 2 ACC offensive rookies of the year (QB Skinner and RB Adams), along with 9 returning starters on defense that ranked 28th in the nation last year allowing only 340 yards per game. I don’t normally like to go against home underdogs, but Baylor is not known for showing up in the first game of the season, and they just don’t have the offense to keep up with Wake Forest.
Appalachian St at (7) LSU (NL) – 5:00 PM EST on ESPN. Normally I wouldn’t really care about this match-up, but there are a couple of things that interest me here. First is obviously the fact that Appalachian St beat Michigan last year in what is arguably the greatest upset in college football history. Second is the quarterback situation down at LSU. Punk kid Ryan Perrilloux finally ran out of excuses and was kicked off the team due to “not fulfilling his obligation” as an LSU athlete, according to head coach Les Miles. I can’t say that I’m not surprised. There is no line for this game, though not surprising for a Div I school playing a Div I-AA.
FAU at (11) Texas (-24) – 7:00 PM EST. Obviously this game won’t get much national attention because it is on PPV, but is a game we all need to watch. How does Colt recover from last season? Is the defense going to be improved under Will Muschamp? How ready is the incredibly young talent? These are all questions that coming into the season. The line here is sitting at right around 24, probably my least favorite number of all. Since I don’t bet on Texas (EVER), I can’t really make a prediction here.
(24) Alabama at (9) Clemson (-5) – 8:00 PM EST on ABC. The pressure starts now for Tommy Bowden and the underachieving Clemson Bulldogs, as they are the clear favorites to win the ACC this season for the first time in school history. Unfortunately they have to start their season facing a solid Alabama, who are looking to improve in their second season under head coach Nick Saban. I think Clemson has too many offensive weapons for Alabama to handle, and their defense is set to be one of the best in the nation. Even though there are a lot of doubters on Clemson, I think they squeak by on this one and cover those 5 points.
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